The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed | Bill Gross | TED



Bill Gross has founded a lot of start-ups, and incubated many others — and he got curious about why some succeeded and others …

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27 Comments

  1. I think it's important to stick to stocks that are immune to economic policies. AI stocks that have the potential to power and transform future technologies. It seems AI is the trajectory most companies are taking, including even established FAANG companies. Maybe there are other recommendations?

  2. 00:14 – Eigenkapitalanreize und Organisation sind der Schlüssel zum Erfolg von Startups
    01:09 – Team, Ausführung, Anpassungsfähigkeit könnten wichtiger sein als die Idee
    01:59 – Anpassungsfähigkeit an Kundenfeedback ist entscheidend für den Erfolg von Startups.
    02:46 – Erfolgfaktoren von Start-ups
    03:36 – Timing ist der wichtigste Grund für den Erfolg von Startups
    04:24 – Timing ist ein entscheidender Faktor für den Erfolg von Startups
    05:13 – Timing ist entscheidend für den Erfolg von Startups
    05:59 – Ausführung und Idee sind wichtig, aber das Timing ist entscheidend.

  3. Thank you Lord Jesus for the gift of life and blessings to me and my family $14,120.47 weekly profit Our lord Jesus have lifted up my Life!!!🙏❤️❤️

  4. Interesting, however you only know if the timing was good in hindsight. (so if the idea worked). So because it succeeded, it created a market that didn’t exist, therefore it was good timing. Would you still consider the Airbnb example “good timing” if it weren’t a success?

  5. sktrrrrr lan timingi yerim executionın içinde timing yoksa idea planningde yoksa öyle startupın ben. timingi nasıl ölçtün ipne herif neye göre kime göre yaz istatistiği araştırmanı okuyalım nasıl ölçüyormuşsun bu timingi. başaralı olan her startupa abi tam zamanınd çıktı ya demek kolay nerde bunun mantığı neye göre? fkkkoffffffff

  6. While timing is undoubtedly important, here are some counterarguments with logical reasoning against his claim:

    ### *1. Survivorship Bias in Data*

    Gross's analysis is based on a selection of successful and failed startups, but it may suffer from **survivorship bias**—focusing only on known cases rather than all possible ventures. Many startups fail due to poor execution, bad leadership, or flawed business models, not just bad timing. If a startup has a strong team and product-market fit, it can often pivot and find the right timing rather than relying on external market conditions.

    ### *2. Execution Matters More Than Timing*

    A startup may be early to the market (e.g., Google was not the first search engine, and Facebook was not the first social network), but **a great team with strong execution can iterate and adapt**. Companies like Tesla had bad timing initially (EVs were not mainstream), but their execution and technological advancements helped them succeed later.

    ### *3. Timing Alone Does Not Guarantee Success*

    Several startups entered the market at the "right time" but still failed due to poor leadership, lack of innovation, or bad marketing. For example:

    *Friendster (2002)* had great timing before Facebook, but it failed due to technical issues and poor user experience.

    *WeWork (2010s)* was in the right time frame for co-working spaces but had an unsustainable business model.

    ### *4. Market Creation vs. Market Entry*

    Some of the most successful startups created markets instead of just entering at the right time. *Apple (iPhone, iPad), Amazon (AWS), and Netflix (streaming)* did not wait for the perfect moment—they built demand through innovation and user experience. Timing might have helped, but their execution, leadership, and business models were more crucial.

    ### *5. Adaptability is More Important Than Perfect Timing*

    Instead of waiting for the perfect moment, many startups succeed because they **learn, adapt, and pivot**. Slack started as a gaming company before pivoting into team communication. If timing were the ultimate factor, startups wouldn't need to pivot—they would just launch at the "perfect" time and succeed instantly.

    ### *Conclusion*

    While timing is a factor in startup success, it is **not the single biggest reason**. Execution, adaptability, innovation, and strong leadership often outweigh market timing. Many startups survive and thrive despite bad timing, while others with perfect timing fail due to poor business decisions.

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